Rand softens ahead of rate hike predictions

26 January 2016

Monday saw another drop in stocks, which could be attributed to problems in the resources and platinum sectors, as global equities buckled under pressure from falling oil prices.

The rand had slipped 0,3% to R16,49 to the dollar by 4pm, cancelling out the slight gains from earlier in the session that had seen the unit trade near a 10-day high.

The rand was unable to take advantage of a weaker greenback, as caution towards emerging markets assets returned.

Further uncertainty over the rand emerged over the likely size of an anticipated interest rate hike on Thursday, when the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) will conclude a three-day policy summit.

Nineteen of 31 economists were of the opinion that the central bank would raise interest rates by 50 basis points next Thursday to 6,75%, while 11 predicted that the Sarb would raise them by 25 basis points. Only one economist forecast that the rate would remain constant.

“There are probably some speculators watching this and they might sell the rand on 25 basis points news,” said Kadd Capital economist Elize Kruger.

“If the Sarb doesn’t hike now after hiking in November, that will really confuse the markets. When they hiked then, it was in a scenario in which the rand was a lot stronger than it is now,” she said.

Bonds tracked the currency, with the benchmark government issue due in 2026 adding 2,5 basis points to 9,63%.

On the bourse, local stocks tracked European markets, which lost some ground due to weakening oil prices, as crude prices retreated from gains made in the previous week, said Cratos Capital Equities Trader Greg Davies.

The blue-chip Top 40 index gave back 1,26% to 42,143 points, while the broader All Share index slipped 0,95% to 47,210 points.

The biggest loser was resources giant BHP Billiton, which fell 4,12% to R150,20. Mining company Anglo American fell 3,66% to R53,98, while Anglo American Platinum shed 2,9% to R186,49.

Telecoms led the bourse on the day, with mobile giants Vodacom and MTN both up nearly 2%, to R144,41 and R124,88 per share respectively.

- Reuters